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Islamic Countries Descending into Chaos

Posted by Tim Blessing on Sunday, March 02, 2008 7:52:26 PM
I wonder what the Muslim World will look like in 5 years.
 
I think there will be an Islamic Republic of Arabia, which will be virulently anti-western and unable to sell its oil.
 
I think Iran will be firmly in the Pro-Western Alliance.
 
Kuwait will be in chaos or occupation.
 
Iraq will be unrecognizable to outsiders, except for Kurdistan.
 
Jordan will be on the edge of being consumed by Arabian Radicalism.
 
Israel will be safe and functional democracy.
 
Lebanon will continue in its usual ways.
 
Syria will still be a problem in the western way of thinking, but they will prefer to do business with us over the Islamic Republic of Arabia.
 
The United Arab Emirates will be consumed by the Islamic Republic of Arabia.
 
Qatar will disappear into this black hole along with Oman and Yemen.
 
Egypt probably will have a fundamentalist Islamic Government even though I hope against it.
 
Sudan will join the west as a frontline ally in the containment of Arab Nationalism.
 
Ethiopia will join the west as a frontline ally in the containment of Arab Nationalism.
 
Somalia will continue to be problematic.
 
Pakistan will pull through, but could continue to be unstable.
 
Afghanistan as usual will continue as an area of warfare as it has throughout much of its history (if I am not mistaken).
 
India will serve as a friend to the west in relation to the Arabs though in terms of a low profile ally.
 
Turkey is caught between the contemporary world of the west and the forces of regression in terms of Islamofascism.
 
The Middle East and by extension the rest of the Muslim World could be on the verge of massive convulsions if we don't play our cards right.
 
These forces have reached Northern Africa, but I am not sure how deeply rooted they are in the population.
 
The main reason I am writing this blog is the fact that a lot of people all over the Muslim World are fed up with their governments and Western interference in their affairs (George W. Bush).
 
The end result could be a cascade of revolutions along the lines of Eastern Europe, China, and Russian from 1989 to1991.
 
What will cause these forces to be unleashed?  Possibly, an assassination, conflict between Iran/Saudi, another Israel War, our precipitous withdraw from Iraq, subversion inside one of these countries by another, or an election that causes an Islamofascist Government to come to power then be forced out by the Military.
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All Politics is Local

Posted by Tim Blessing on Sunday, March 02, 2008 7:06:28 PM
Tip O'Neil once said, "All Politics is Local".  A statement that his dad gave to him back in the time of Teddy Roosevelt.
 
Governor Jim Rhodes of Ohio told George HW Bush the main issue to voters is jobs.
 
None of the current candidates has tapped into that source or issue.
 
Each one talk's about their resumes in relation to the job of being President, but there is no economic program from any of the 4 main candidates.
 
Barack Obama tap's into a source of anger toward's George W. Bush in relation to Iraq, but that's about it.
 
I hate Iraq as a war and as a campaign issue.
 
And, from what I have seen and read most of our economic problems can be traced back to Iraq.  In essence, Iraq is bad for business and workers.
 
If I was John McCain I would be proposing a gigantic tax cut to get the economy moving.  Its the main domestic issue that voters vote for Republicans.
 
The Democrats are caught between Hillary who is a strong candidate on issues, but is an uninspiring speaker. 
 
Obama is very inspirational speaker, but is in an honest sense weak on the issues and his prior record, while it has some strengths is no panacea for the Presidency.
 
If you talk your resume you will not inspire the public to vote for you.  If you say this is what I am going to do for you then your talking.
 
McCain will never win on increasing federal spending, but Hillary can win on economics although it might be too late to advance that argument.
 
Obama's record on jobs is unknown to me.
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Free Trade and the National Interest

Posted by Tim Blessing on Friday, February 29, 2008 7:29:51 PM
Free Trade is an idealistic concept of College Professors and some Politicians.
 
I use to believe in it, but have come around to my own concept of trade, which I call guided trade.
 
That mean's we do business with those countries that are on the same level as us.
 
Western Europe, Japan, Canada, India, Russia, Australia, Brazil, Pakistan, Iran, and indirectly Mexico are our natural partners.
 
We do not as far as I know have a trade deal with France who is a natural partner to us.
 
We do from what I have heard is a trade agreement with Russia that is beginning to take effect.  The Russians don't want Bush to get any of the credit for it.
 
Free Trade Theory suggest's that you produce and sell to me what you have in comparative advantage to me.
 
The problem has been that the countries we sign these deals with sell us their products and take our jobs, but don't invest here in the United States nor do they import our products.
 
We make high quality products, but our costs are much higher than say in Mexico.
 
The reason we do business with say Russia is they want to buy directly from our Manufacturers, while selling us natural resources.
 
In essence, we are pursuing free trade with Russia along the lines of our national interest, which is to get tangible benefits domestically without screwing ourselves.
 
Free Trade is an oxymoron, but trade and the national interest balancing our needs with our friends needs is a better way to do it.
 
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Experience in Crisis Management

Posted by Tim Blessing on Friday, February 29, 2008 7:18:28 PM
War is a dirty business in any day or time.  Barack say's he has judgement.  I wonder where his Judgement has been used before that qualify's him to be Commander in Chief.  Certainly, a community organizer is no experience.  Being a Civil Rights Attorney is no preparation, being a Academic certainly provide's no professional experience.  I suppose its an instinctive judgement.  I'm not sure how you quantify that last point.
 
To oppose the Iraq War five years ago look's great now, but has he upgraded his knowledge all along to have a way out of the mess.
 
Quantitative analysis and Qualitative analysis require education and work experience to deal with crises.
 
Obama has not shown any direct or indirect training in this area.
 
Hillary has eight years in the White House as an adviser plus seven years in the senate that while they maybe lawmaking it is again professional experience.
 
On this issue, McCain outclass's both his opponents with 50 years in the National Security Business.
 
Crisis Management is more the forte of Republicans since Eisenhower, except for Kennedy in the Cuban Missile Crisis.
 
Crisis Management is a primarily an executive function than a legislative function more of a military function than a civilian function.
 
More about reacting immediately to outside pressure with the two sole determinants being your ability to have insight, the use of current information, and calling on your prior experience to make decisions without regard to cost or error.
 
McCain is number one on crisis management, Hillary come's second, and Obama come's third.
 
I hope we don't have a rerun of Jimmy Carter through Obama.
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The Iraq Puzzle in 2008

Posted by Tim Blessing on Thursday, February 28, 2008 7:16:12 PM
Iraq can be source of discomfort to politicians of both parties because no one know's how to plan accordingly.
 
This issue may be divided on a percentage basis as a way to deal with like soldiers deaths are down, but violence is up.
 
Reconstruction has been going strong for six months, but for the last two it has stalled do to terrorist attacks.
 
Iraqi government is moving forward, but the deputy prime minister has been assassinated.
 
I guess the key is what do the terrorists do during the near future to upset the Iraq Applecart for the US Election.
 
Another is how to minimize the divisiveness to lower level politicians.
 
Bring 30000 soldiers home before the fall campaign start's.
 
Bring the Islamofascists terrorists inside Iraq to justice.
 
Progress is made, but total victory is not yet 90 percent assured.
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2008 Economy: Stagflation

Posted by Tim Blessing on Thursday, February 28, 2008 7:08:58 PM
The Economy may be entering a stagflation phase that nothing can be done about in the short term.
 
The last bout of this in 1980 caused the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 21 percent, but inflation was 13 percent.
 
Unemployment rose to over 10 percent as a direct result of that policy.
 
Reagan came into office cut taxes, cut spending, and increased defense spending.
 
All were eventually reined in by Congress.
 
It took two years for the Fed to purge the economy of hyperinflation and put the economy back on track.
 
Needless to say, a lot of people lost their jobs, but the economy was good for almost 10 years.
 
I don't think Bernanke is a good a Fed Chairman as Paul Volcker was at that time, but that's one man's opinion.
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William F. Buckley

Posted by Tim Blessing on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 7:50:55 PM
I have read National Review since June of 1985 because they were connected to Reagan.
 
I did not read Buckley's Novels or watch Fireline.
 
I have considered National Review my number one conservative magazine since 1985.
 
Let's just say, I like the work product of National Review and I like the people Buckley brought together to create this Conservative Phenomenom.
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Obama: The Political Fighter

Posted by Tim Blessing on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 7:38:37 PM
Obama is smart, fast, agile, and almost resistant to political injury.
 
That's spiderman in the comics.
 
He has good public speaking skills, lots of charisma, and he has poise.
 
He has extreme economic views, social views, and foreign views almost communist.
 
He is a speaker on a scale of 1 to 10 (highest 10) about 8.
 
His charisma is about 8.
 
His poise is about 9.
 
That mean's he can use television to his advantage.
 
That mean's what goes on off television may be something else entirely.
 
His positions on issues put him at variance with the majority of the American People.
 
His television appeal blind's people to his numerous issue positions.
 
Sort of like Reagan whose personality was appealing, but his positions on the issues were not all that popular.
 
Innocence without translation to action.
 
How do you penetrate the television illusion?  It depend's.  With the grinding nature of television and politics.  The next 6 months could allow for McCain to paint Obama as a lightweight unworthy of the office or if Obama play's it well he could use television to broaden his appeal.
 
Nixon defeated Reagan in 1968.  Ford defeated Reagan in 1976.  Dukakis beat Jackson.  Pataki beat Cuomo in New York. 
 
Yes, there are cases where the less telegenic candidate won, but how they did it is for campaign operatives to decide.
 
Nixon and Johnson did not debate in1964, 1968, and 1972.
 
Debates give the challenger a chance to equalize impressions of themselves with the senior candidate in the public's mind.
 
Obama may be burned out come September.  The economy could shift.  The Iraq situation could shift.  Any of the other variables may shift to positive.
 
The American People take to unusual candidates every once and a great while sort of like a protest or sometime's their demanding real change.
 
I guess where Obama is concerned do you play chess, poker, backgamma, parchisi, or some other game to beat him.
 
When Reagan's image was destroyed in Iran-Contra his ability to influence events ceased, but he regained his popularity.
 
When Clinton was finished with impeachment he was stronger in the public mind.
 
Obama is an illusionist like Reagan the question is how to pierce the illusion?  History is the only guide.
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Al Qaeda in the Muslim World

Posted by Tim Blessing on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 7:18:19 PM
Al Qaeda simply translated mean's the base.
 
It is a movement with many independent operatoring cells with no direct connection with each other, except over the Internet.
 
It is not a monolithic organization like the PLO or Hizbollah.
 
That mean's its decentralized with the center (if it exists) acting as an inspirational force instead of a command team.
 
An unorganized guerilla force in North America, South America, Africa, Europe, Asia, and mainly in the Middle East.
 
A cell can form in Iraq like they've done on numerous occassions and call themselves the muslim soldiers or whatever.
 
They imply they have thousands of members when its a small band.
 
These cells get money mainly from Saudi Arabia.
 
A large plurality of these terrorists in Iraq come from Saudi Arabia.
 
The rest come from North Africa or the Middle East.
 
You don't see many East Asians taking on this Iraq Project.
 
They are good at making bombs and usually limit themselves to spectacular displays of terrorism.
 
Most of them are educated Arab Males and some females.
 
They can't accept the fact that the West and Far East and soon Russia outclass Islam as a dominant force in the world.
 
You will never defeat them on the battlefield in the Middle East because they have the home field advantage (football).
 
You have isolate the problem: Arab Radicalism as much as possible, until it burn's itself out.
 
The Eisenhower Doctrine: Containment of Arab Nationalism by an author I can't remember has the best overview of this phenomenom.  The actors have switched places, but the basic facts haven't changed.
 
Arabs are good at terrorism, but they are lousy at conventional warfare.
 
Special Operations and Intel People have a better feel for rooting out this phenomenom than do people in conventional military forces.
 
Why? I don't know.  Arabs from a cultural standpoint are hottempered and extremely patient and extremely warlike all at the same time.
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Iraq: What is it Worth

Posted by Tim Blessing on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 7:28:45 PM
Iraq is a problem that dominate's every other issue.  I guess what everyone want's to know is when does it become totally non devicise.  If the enemy is still intent on fighting even if its desparate suicide attacks then it play's on television.
 
Television is the key.  If 10 die today, 70 tomorrow, and so on then its going to be on the nightime news.
 
If you watch cable news then you know what's going on around the clock.
 
The public want's it resolved, but they don't know how to resolve it.
 
What's important to us? The oil regions mainly. 
 
What's important to Bush?  That Iraq remain Iraq with a democratic government.
 
Ultimately, the question is when can the Iraqi Military stand on its own two feet without us in anything more than minimal presence?
 
How many soldiers and marines are in South Korea and Germany?
 
I am not an expert in numbers, but 75000 military people in Iraq would go a long way to reducing the festering cauldron that give's the insurgents their recruits for the resistance.
 
A discrete presence if you will.  This will make the surrounding governments less nervous.
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The US Political System

Posted by Tim Blessing on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 7:18:13 PM
The US Political System is an organization of massive complexity.  Such anybody who say's they can order the other actors around is smoking dope.
 
For a President, that mean's raising money, getting the nomination, winning the Presidential Race, organizing an administration, and hopefully pushing his or her agenda through the both houses of congress, getting implemented by the bureaucracy, satisfactorily adjucated by the courts, without resistance by state governments, getting the press to buy into it, and ultimately the public to buy into it is an enormous task.
 
Even Lyndon Johnson stalled in 1967 because of the unpopularity of the Vietnam War.
 
One or more policies is going to cause friction with some player in the system.
 
Reagan and Kennedy were stellar speechmakers, but Kennedy never got traction and after Reagan's first year the momentum slowed down dramatically.
 
Each House of Congress has its own rules, timetables, and individual memers with agendas.
 
Each house must come to agreement with the other house on a combined version of a bill.
 
Rather than discoursing on the complexity of the system its better to read David Stockman's book The Triumph of Politics to get an overview of what a President faces in getting his program through the system.
 
Tip O'Neil wrote a good book on the system, but only 3 times in 50 years of politics did he lead a transformation and those were limited.
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NAFTA, Iraq, and McCain Money Matters

Posted by Tim Blessing on Monday, February 25, 2008 7:13:18 PM
NAFTA
 
The one thing that stand's out as an untouchable success of Clinton is his economic policies, which include's NAFTA.
 
By focusing on NAFTA, the democrats are tearing themselves apart on one aspect of Clinton's economic record.
 
Iraq
 
Iraq serve's no one's best interest.  If it continue's to get better then the Republican Party as a whole does better.  If it get's worse then it serve's the democrats best interest.
 
It will continue up to the election.  The question in the minds of voters:  Is Iraq blowing hot or is it blowing cold?
 
The last time a war really interfered with an election was in 1864 when Sherman took Atlanta.
 
In essence, variables do not change between Labor Day and Election Day as a rule.
 
Yes, Vietnam interferred with the 1968 election, but the die was cast before Labor Day.
 
McCain Money Matters
 
John McCain is a good politician and politicians will cut corners to achieve their larger objectives.
 
He need's money and in order to compete he has to get from someplace.
 
On balance, the question for donors will stand strong on my issues.  For the press, if it look's odd then its obviously a falsehood to be investigated.
 
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I will go to Korea (Iraq)

Posted by Tim Blessing on Sunday, February 24, 2008 12:23:55 PM
2008 is like 1952.
 
Eisenhower went to Korea and later got a truce with the Communists of that era.
 
In Iraq example, we have Bush who is through his own stubborness trying to impose a democrat/capitalist system on Iraq.  Those Muslims inside Iraq either don't want or unable to understand our system
 
After 5 years of war, we are unable to secure Iraq then there need's to be some model for resolution.
 
Bush won't withdrawal from Iraq on his own for some reason and Congress won't force his hand through the war powers act.
 
In essence, this is the defining issue for 2008.  How do we end a war that everybody is tired of waging, except for Bush.
 
There are no good outcomes in Iraq.  The only solution is to contain the problem within Iraq's borders and Saudi Arabia's borders along the line of mountains that run through Jordan and Iraq.
 
Finally, A Liberal Democrat Candidate for President will campaign for peace, but usually will expand a war once they get into Office.  At least since WW II.
 
Republicans usually end wars.
 
In American Politics, Candidates usually end up doing opposite of what they intend to do for some reason.
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McCain and Kosovo

Posted by Tim Blessing on Thursday, February 21, 2008 7:15:19 PM
McCain has been tarred and feathered by the New York Times, which is a Liberal Newspaper.  Its not a truth and objective opinion newspaper.
 
Be that as it may an investigation of McCain's personal dealings would go a long way to dispelling any tawdry material connected to him.
 
Straight Talk Express and the Maverick.  Again, a thorough exploration of his personal dealings would be in order to find anything else that might lurk in the background.
 
I would say that the Senator might have done something with the female in question, but is it a pattern of behavior like Clinton or Kennedy.
 
Kosovo, is an issue that play's to raw emotions for the Russians and the Europeans.  We, in the United States want to keep it from spreading beyond Kosovo and the former Yugoslavia to the rest of Europe.
 
The first step is to close the borders to the area so as to not let it spread.
 
The second step is to get an analysis of the situation on the ground that bring's together Russian, German, France, England, and Italian government interests.
 
The 3rd step is to get these European Powers to work the various factions within Kosovo and Serbia to reach an accomodation.
 
The Europeans and Russians want it worked out so there is no war or widespread disruption of the local economy.
 
We need Russian Natural Resources here in the West, while the Russians need our security guarantees.
 
Yugoslavia is one of those flashpoints that could disrupt the larger process.
 
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Obama and Cuba

Posted by Tim Blessing on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 7:19:09 PM
Obama appeal's to new voters who do not understand the complexity of issues and the system.
 
That's no different than the people Kennedy brought into politics in 1960.
 
Idealistic and knave in how complex the checks and balances of our Constitution and Bill of Rights.
 
The problem could be diagnosed as an emotional connection between him and his supporters rather than an intellectual conversation.
 
He's not a normal politician running for President.  He's more like a Islamic Cleric leading a movement.
 
These people who are voting for him do not seem to intelligent or they would look at his message more coldly and practical.
 
Its a combination of religion and politics.  A combination of Christ, Lincoln, Reagan, and maybe some Islam.
 
He is a sophist in the Greek Tradition of the word more rhetoric than actual true substance.
 
These people see his charisma and speaking ability, but they don't probe any deeper into the ideology or his background.
 
Are they ignorant?  Yes, they do not see his combination of coldness and emotion.  He is a fraud, but his voters are not educated to his true nature like Kennedy's more idealistic supporters and Johnson's.
 
Reagan style of rhetoric: meat and potatoes with bellicoisity.
 
Cuba is an issue that cut's both ways.  If the embargo is lifted before the presidential election then the Republican nominee lose's Floriada.
 
Castro is not dead and neither is his brother.  Until, they become incapacitated they will run Cuba based on influence rather than office.
 
Again, I would take a wait and see attitude because Cuba is a sensitive issue in Florida.
 
 
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