Posted by
Tim Blessing on Thursday, April 03, 2008 7:25:41 PM
I have followed politics for 36 years and I have studied this current election cycle with interest.
It seems to me that there's an outside chance for Republicans to pick up control of the Senate, but will fall far short in the House.
House Republicans have 25 or so retiring Congressmen, which is an uphill to climb for any party especially when you are the party out of power with a President whose popularity rating is 30%.
That leaves the U. S. Senate as the one place Republicans have a chance of taking control.
I count 5 weak democrat seats and 6 contested races on the Republican side.
Senator Pryor of Arkansas appears to be a good shot of a Republican takeover.
Senator Landrieu of Louisiana appear's to be not a shoe in for reelection.
Both of these seats are in the South, which is a Republican stronghold.
Senator Baucus of Montana is a weak candidate based on polls of I seen once or twice.
Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey should be a weak candidate, but he is an institution in New Jersey, probably has wide name recognition, and money.
Senator Johnson of South Dakota normally would not have an easy time in being reelected, but he will have a sympathy vote due to his recent illness.
Colorado is an open seat that could remain Republican if McCain help's out on all levels and other Republicans pitch in. It is nominally a Republican State, but Republicans have had a bad few years. How's the economy doing in Colorado, is the Iraq War a negative, and what the popular ratings of McCain and Schaffer.
Senator Norm Coleman of Minnesota will be up for reelection and will face Al Franken who is a mean comedian. Is the mood in Minnesotat positive or negative.
Future Senator Mike Johanns should be able to hold this seat in Nebraska, which strongly pro-Republican.
Senator Sununu face's former New Hampshire GovernorJeanne Shaheen for this seat. I am noticing more and more that these national women like the substance of politics, but do not like the football approach most male politicians apply to this bloodsport.
Wyoming is a safe seat. I can't think of any Democrat winning statewide in that state going back as far as I remember.
These are not precise predictions, but it look's like in my opinion the Republicans will net 3 seats in this organization.
Enough to control the United States Senate and give Republicans a better hand to play in Lawmaking.