Posted by
Tim Blessing on Wednesday, March 05, 2008 7:27:00 PM
I am a Political Scientist by trade, but I do have a little of the historian in me.
When comparing current situations to past events its good to compare and contrast because no two events are exactly alike.
Right now, the Democrats are split down the middle on Hillary and Obama like the Republicans of 1976 were on Reagan and Ford.
The difference at that time was we had lost the Vietnam War and had been through the Watergate episode and Ford was President.
On the Republican side, we have McCain who has good credentials though not great credentials and lead's a weak and divided party like Carter did in 1976.
The difference is the fact that most people know who McCain is and they didn't know who Carter would turn out to be.
The Democrats of this era are faced with a historic event in that their two main candidates are an African American and a female.
Their voters are becoming polarized because of this phenomenom.
This maybe a case where nobody win's and the Republicans benefit.
25% of Hillary's voters say they will vote for McCain if Hillary doesn't get the nomination. While 10% of Obama's voters will go to McCain if Obama doesn't get the nomination.
In 1976, Republican Voters prefered Reagan, but Ford won out of dutiful loyalty. Reagan went on to win 4 years later against Carter.
Hillary, however, has one shot at this job like the elder Bush did in 1988. Meaning, there is no bedrock loyalty to Hillary that she can count on in future elections with her voters.
Obama has the makings of a Reagan or Roosevelt 2, but the damage being done to him in the Primary Process maybe irrepairable.
Yes, the campaign at this moment resemble's 1976, but the 2 parties have different cultures, histories, traditions, and voter bases.
The question for Obama is can he maintain his political health through this campaign and beyond if he doesn't win.
Do Hillary and/or Obama have to have it now or can they wait, until the next time?